AFCON 2021: Group Phase analysis- current standing, already qualified teams and chances of qualification for other teams

As the final round, group phase fixtures of the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations starts today, let’s have a look at the teams’ performances ahead of the last group fixtures. The teams that have secured a spot in the round of 16, and teams with a chance of qualification.

Cameroon, Morocco and Nigeria are already through to the next round while Burkina Faso, Senegal, Guinea, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Mali and Tunisia have a good chance to join Nigeria, Cameroon and Morocco in the next round.

Group A

 

After round two of the group phase fixtures, Cameroon top the table with six points after defeating Burkina Faso and Ethiopia. The six points takes them to the next round. Burkina Faso and Cape Verde have a good chance to follow Cameroon.

Burkina Faso has 3 points after defeating Cape Verde. Cape Verde is also on 3 points after defeating Ethiopia in the first round.

With both teams on 3 points, Burkina Faso will need to defeat Ethiopia to progress and Cape Verde will need to beat Cameroon to get 6 points.

Possible Scenarios

If Cape Verde lose to Cameroon, and Burkina Faso defeat or draw Ethiopia, they will progress.

A draw for Cape Verde and a loss to Burkina Faso means Cape Verde will progress, and Ethiopia will move above Burkina Faso due to head to head rules.

If Cape Verde draws Cameroon and Burkina Faso draws Ethiopia, Burkina Faso will progress based on head to head rules. Cape Verde will settle for third place qualification.

Group B

Ahead of the final group phase fixtures, Senegal and Guinea are tie on 4 points after playing 0-0 draw.

Senegal defeated Zimbabwe and Guinea defeated Malawi. Senegal and Guinea can go through if they win or draw their final group phase fixtures. But the goal difference will determine who tops the table.

Malawi is on three points after defeating Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is practically out of the tournament. Even if they win their last group phase game, they can’t be ahead of Malawi due to the head to head rules.

Possible scenarios

If Senegal defeat Malawi, they will go through with 7 points. Malawi remain on 3 points and hope for third place qualification.

If Guinea defeat Zimbabwe, they go through on 7 points. Zimbabwe out of the tournament. GD determines who tops the table.

Malawi wins they top the table with 6 points and Senegal drops to second or third position depending on the outcome of Guinea vs Zimbabwe match.

Group C

Morocco has secured a spot in the second round after beating Morocco and Comoros. Gabon sits second with 4 points after defeating Comoros and drew Ghana.

Possible Scenarios

Comoros stand a chance to qualify through third place qualifications if they beat Ghana.

A win for Gabon will place them above morocco who currently occupies the first position.

A loss for Gabon will keep them in the second position, but Ghana cannot occupy the second position even if they defeat Comoros due to the head to head rules.

Group D

Nigeria are through to the next round after defeating Egypt and Sudan. Even if Nigeria lose to Guinea-Bissau in their final group phase fixture, they will maintain the first position because of the head to head rules.

Possible Scenarios

Egypt will progress without third place qualification if they can defeat or draw Sudan.

If Sudan defeat Egypt, then Nigeria must defeat Guinea-Bissau for the Pharaohs to have a chance to qualify through third place qualification. Guinea Bissau will move to the bottom of the table and Sudan finish second.

Group E

Group E is very dicey. Ivory Coast that currently occupies the first position can finish bottom of the table and Algeria currently in the bottom can finish second position.

Ivory Coast has four points from two games after defeating Equatorial Guinea and drew Sierra Leone.

Equatorial Guinea is on three points after defeating Algeria. Algeria has one point after playing a goalless draw against Sierra Leone.

Possible Scenarios

If Algeria defeat Ivory Coast, Ivory coast would need Sierra Leone to draw Equatorial Guinea to go through. With a draw, Equatorial Guinea will have four points and tops the table, and Algeria Second, Ivory Coast third and Sierra Leone last with three points.

If Algeria lose, no changes to the position unless Sierra Leone defeat Equatorial Guinea. That will put them on 5 points ahead of Equatorial guinea, which is on 3 points.

If Algeria and Sierra Leone wins, they will finish ahead of Equatorial Guinea. Ivory Coast can go through on third place qualification.

If Equatorial Guinea wins, Sierra Leone is out of the tournament.

Group F

The dubutant unexpectedly are top on Group F with 4 points after defeating Mauritania and drew Mali. Mauritanian is practically out of the tournament.

Possible Scenario

Tunisia can go top of table if they beat Gambia provided Mali fails to defeat Mauritania.

If Tunisia draw Gambia, they will remain in third position even if Mali losses, due to head to head rules. However, they have a good chance to qualify through third place qualification.

 

P.S: 16 teams are expected to qualify to the next round. The first and second position will secure automatic qualification , while the four best teams in the third place will complete the 16 teams.